Falling immigration and birth rates constrain US labor supply growth

The short version

• Business Insider reports that lower birth rates, aging baby boomers and falling immigration are constraining US labor supply.[Business Insider]
• Net international migration fell from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025, according to Census Bureau data.[Business Insider]
• The Congressional Budget Office expects the US population to peak at 364 million in 2056 before declining.[Business Insider]
• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas economist Pia Orrenius says immigration usually accounts for about half of US job growth.[Business Insider]

Key facts

• The Congressional Budget Office expects the US population to peak at 364 million in 2056 before declining.[Business Insider]
• Net international migration to the US was 2.7 million in 2024, fell to 1.3 million in 2025, and is expected to reach 321,000 in 2026, per the Census Bureau.[Business Insider]
• Pia Orrenius, a labor economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, says immigration is usually about half of US job growth.[Business Insider]
• Leigh Barnes of Intrepid Travel told Business Insider that Canadian travelers to the US fell 67 percent from 2025 to 2026.[Business Insider]

Sources

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.

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