Environment & Climate
Forecasters and officials warn El Niño could bring floods to Kenya
BBC News reports that the IOM warns nearly 900,000 Kenyans could be displaced as El Niño approaches.
The short version
- Forecasters and officials warn that a very strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean dipole could bring enhanced rainfall and flooding to East Africa.[BBC News]
- The IOM warns nearly 900,000 people in Kenya could be displaced this year, mostly by predicted floods, while Somalia's agency warns 1.2 million are at risk.[BBC News]
- Officials say Nairobi's drainage was built for about 2.5 million people and now serves far more, with up to $192m needed for a full upgrade.[BBC News]
- Intense rains earlier this year killed more than 60 people across Kenya, and the scale of any coming floods remains unknown.[BBC News]
Key facts
- The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) warned in September of an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño during October to December 2026.[BBC News]
- The International Organization for Migration warned that almost 900,000 people could be forced to leave their homes in Kenya this year, mostly because of predicted floods.[BBC News]
- Somalia's disaster management agency warned that 1.2 million people are at risk of displacement from extreme weather, including floods and drought.[BBC News]
- Nairobi County disaster management chief Bramwell Simiyu said the city's drainage was developed 30 years ago for about 2.5 million residents but now handles about 7 million in the daytime and 5.5 million at night.[BBC News]
- Simiyu said up to $192m (£143m) is needed to upgrade Nairobi's sewerage and drainage system entirely.[BBC News]
- Simiyu estimated that up to about 100,000 people in low-income settlements are at risk in a worst-case scenario, and about 20,000 in a moderate projection.[BBC News]
- Weather forecaster Jemima Gacheru told the BBC that very strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific and a positive Indian Ocean dipole are expected to bring enhanced rainfall.[BBC News]
What remains uncertain
- The displacement figures, flood risk estimates and El Niño strength are forecasts and projections, not observed outcomes.[BBC News]
- The $192m upgrade cost and the 20,000 to 100,000 risk range are official estimates from Nairobi's disaster management chief, and the reporting does not independently verify them.[BBC News]
Sources
Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.