Environment & Climate
Strong El Niño projected to push 2026 and 2027 above 1.5C
Scientific American reports that record Pacific heat is projected to push 2026 and 2027 above 1.5 degrees Celsius, though scientists are uncertain about the long-term outlook.
The short version
- Scientific American reports that 2026 and 2027 are projected to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial averages.[Scientific American]
- Sea surface temperatures in El Niño's epicenter passed a daily record for the date by September, ahead of the usual peak.[Scientific American]
- Models project Pacific core ocean temperatures could reach four degrees Celsius above normal at peak, now about 3.4.[Scientific American]
- Scientists disagree on whether warming stays above 1.5C; a strong La Niña could temporarily lower global temperatures.[Scientific American]
Key facts
- Both 2026 and 2027 are projected to come in more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial averages.[Scientific American]
- Projected global average temperatures are 1.52 C above preindustrial levels for 2026 and 1.74 C for 2027.[Scientific American]
- Sea surface temperatures in El Niño's epicenter passed a daily record set in November 2015 by September.[Scientific American]
- Models project Pacific core ocean temperatures could reach four degrees C above normal at peak, currently around 3.4 C.[Scientific American]
- A strong La Niña could temporarily lower global temperatures to about 1.45 C above preindustrial levels.[Scientific American]
- A Nature Climate Change study estimates land areas have already experienced 90 to 94 percent of the warming expected at 1.5 C.[Scientific American]
What remains uncertain
- It is unknown whether global temperatures will stay permanently above 1.5 C or eventually dip back below it.[Scientific American]
- The 2026 and 2027 temperature figures and peak Pacific ocean temperatures are model-based projections, not observed values.[Scientific American]
- Views attributed to climate scientists Daniel Swain and Zeke Hausfather on a return below 1.5 C are individual opinions, not established consensus.[Scientific American]
Sources
Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.
- El Niño will push temperatures above 1.5 degrees C. Will we ever come back down?Scientific American metered