Environment & Climate

Global fossil fuel emissions forecast to dip slightly in 2026

A Global Carbon Budget assessment projects a 0.4% fall in fossil fuel emissions, but total emissions are forecast to rise.

Published Nov 10, 2026 · 07:42 UTC5 reports

The short version

Global Carbon Budget scientists forecast fossil fuel emissions to fall about 0.4% in 2026.[Deutsche Welle · The Guardian]
High energy prices following the war in Iran are driving the drop, and oil burning is forecast to fall 2%.[Deutsche Welle · The Guardian]
Total carbon emissions are still forecast to rise from 42.8bn to 43.3bn tonnes, due to land use changes.[Deutsche Welle · The Guardian]
Glen Peters says a one-year drop is not a peak without structural change, and Bill Hare calls the 0.4% fall statistically indistinguishable from zero.[Deutsche Welle · The Guardian]

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions are forecast to fall about 0.4% in 2026.[Deutsche Welle · The Guardian]
Emissions from burning oil are forecast to drop by 2% in 2026.[The Guardian]
Total carbon emissions are forecast to rise from 42.8bn tonnes last year to 43.3bn tonnes in 2026, due to deforestation and land use changes.[Deutsche Welle · The Guardian]
About 38.2bn tonnes of CO2 from fossil fuels will be emitted this year, according to the Global Carbon Budget.[The Guardian]
Coal emissions continued to rise by around 0.6% in 2026.[Deutsche Welle]
The projected fall is attributed to high energy prices and disruptions following the war in Iran.[Deutsche Welle · The Guardian]

Whether the dip marks a lasting emissions peak is unresolved, according to researchers cited in the reporting.[Deutsche Welle · The Guardian]
Bill Hare said the projected 0.4% fall is statistically indistinguishable from zero.[The Guardian]

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.