Environment & Climate

Berkeley Earth forecasts 2026 will surpass 2024 as hottest year

The WMO is more cautious, forecasting 2026 among the four warmest years, while Copernicus confirmed October set a record.

Published Nov 13, 2026 · 16:10 UTC2 reports

The short version

Berkeley Earth, an independent US research group, says it is 95% confident 2026 will surpass the 2024 record as the hottest year.[BBC News]
The UN's World Meteorological Organization is more cautious, forecasting 2026 will be among the four warmest years on record.[BBC News]
Copernicus confirmed October was the hottest on record, and the WMO put January to September about 1.47C above preindustrial levels.[The Guardian · BBC News]
Both views are forecasts made with two months of 2026 remaining, so the final ranking is not yet settled.[BBC News]

Berkeley Earth said it is 95% confident 2026 will surpass the 2024 record as the world's hottest year.[BBC News]
The WMO forecast that 2026 will be among the four warmest years on record.[BBC News]
Copernicus confirmed that October was the hottest on record.[BBC News]
The WMO said average surface temperature for January to September 2026 was about 1.47C above the preindustrial average.[The Guardian]
The WMO reported Earth's energy imbalance rose 0.3W per square metre per decade over 2001–2025, compared with 0.13W over 1960–2025.[The Guardian]

Berkeley Earth's record forecast is a projection made with two months of 2026 remaining, and the more cautious WMO outlook does not confirm a record.[BBC News]

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.