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Bank of England expected to raise rates for first time in over three years

BBC News reports most analysts expect the Bank of England to raise rates from 3.75% to 4% on Thursday, while inflation rose to 3.5% in September.

The short version

  • Bank of England policymakers are expected to raise interest rates on Thursday, which would be the first increase in more than three years.[BBC News]
  • Most analysts predict a quarter-point rise, from 3.75% to 4%, which would raise borrowing costs while benefiting savers.[BBC News]
  • UK consumer price inflation was 3.5% in the year to September 2026, up from 3.1% the previous month and above the 2% target.[BBC News]
  • UK Finance estimates a typical tracker mortgage would rise £31 a month; variable-rate borrowers depend on how their lenders respond.[BBC News]

Key facts

  • The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates on Thursday, which would be the first increase in more than three years.[BBC News]
  • Most analysts expect the benchmark rate to rise by a quarter point, from 3.75% to 4%.[BBC News]
  • UK Consumer Prices Index inflation was 3.5% in the year to September 2026, up from 3.1% the previous month and well above the 2% target.[BBC News]
  • According to calculations by UK Finance, a 0.25 percentage point rise would increase monthly repayments by £31 for a typical tracker mortgage.[BBC News]
  • A typical 0.25 percentage point rise would mean a £14 monthly increase in repayments for variable-rate mortgage holders, depending on lender reaction.[BBC News]

What remains uncertain

  • The rate rise is an expectation rather than an announced decision in the reporting.[BBC News]
  • Repayment increases for variable-rate borrowers depend on individual lender responses, which are not yet known.[BBC News]

Sources

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.