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Environment & Climate

Super El Niño rains trigger flooding across Florida, Four Corners and Ecuador

Scientific American reports that Super El Niño rains have flooded Florida, the Four Corners region and Ecuador, and that Daniel Swain expects flood risk to shift toward California.

Published Nov 5, 2026 · 18:32 UTC1 reports

The short version

  • Heavy rain linked to a Super El Niño has flooded Florida, the Four Corners region and Ecuador, per Scientific American.[Scientific American]
  • Malabar, Florida, recorded two feet of rain in 36 hours, a once-in-1,000-year event according to the National Weather Service.[Scientific American]
  • The San Juan River crested at 16.81 feet in Pagosa Springs, Colorado.[Scientific American]
  • The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts strong to very strong El Niño through March 2027, and Swain says flood risk will shift to California.[Scientific American]

Key facts

  • The National Weather Service reported two feet of rain fell in 36 hours on November 1 and 2 in Malabar, Florida, a once-in-1,000-year event for the region.[Scientific American]
  • The San Juan River reached a peak of 16.81 feet in Pagosa Springs, Colorado, during the recent flooding.[Scientific American]
  • The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts strong to very strong El Niño conditions from January to March 2027.[Scientific American]
  • Daniel Swain says waters off the coast of Baja California are 11 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average.[Scientific American]
  • Russ Schumacher, a Colorado State University meteorologist, says getting essentially three big rainstorms in two years is very unusual.[Scientific American]

What remains uncertain

  • A single meteorologist's estimate that 1.9 trillion gallons of water fell across Florida in 24 hours is an estimate, not a measured total.[Scientific American]
  • Swain's view that climate change is boosting the current hydroclimate effects is his assessment, not an established finding in the reporting.[Scientific American]
  • The expected shift of flood risk toward California and the forecast of a severe thunderstorm winter in Florida are projections that may change.[Scientific American]

Sources

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.