Polls show Democrats leading in US House races, though reaching voters is difficult

The short version

• Recent polls show Democrats leading in well over the 218 House seats needed for control.[The Guardian · BBC News]
• A Reuters/Ipsos survey put Democrats 11 points ahead on the generic ballot, with Trump's approval at 32%.[The Guardian]
• CNN surveys show Democrats ahead in Texas, Kansas and Maine, while a New York Times poll shows a tie in South Carolina.[BBC News]
• Ipsos's Clifford Young says polling is harder because voters abandon landlines and screen calls, so results carry uncertainty.[BBC News]

Key facts

• A Reuters/Ipsos survey gave Democrats an 11-point generic congressional ballot lead, 47% to 36%, while Trump's approval stood at 32%.[The Guardian]
• Polls suggest Democratic candidates lead in well over the 218 seats needed to flip control of the House.[The Guardian · BBC News]
• CNN surveys put Democrats ahead in Texas, Kansas and Maine for key Senate races.[BBC News]
• A New York Times poll had the South Carolina Senate race tied, in a state Trump won by 18 points in 2024.[BBC News]
• Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs, says polling has become difficult because voters abandon landlines and screen calls.[BBC News]

Sources

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.

• Are the US midterms going to see a blue wave of Democrats winning seats – or a blue flood?The Guardian - US
• Democrats have high hopes for midterms, but polls have let them down beforeBBC News - World