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Brazil's Lula and Bolsonaro enter tight runoff with polls showing close race

Flavio Bolsonaro narrowly led the first round, and recent polls show the runoff is close.

Updated Oct 25, 2026 · 10:02 UTC3 reports

The short version

  • Flavio Bolsonaro took 47 percent in the first round, narrowly ahead of incumbent Lula at 45 percent.[Al Jazeera]
  • A CNT/MDA survey released Saturday put Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Lula at 45 percent.[Al Jazeera]
  • An earlier CNT/MDA poll showed a similar gap, with Bolsonaro at 46.8 percent and Lula at 45.9 percent.[Al Jazeera]
  • Almost 160 million Brazilians are eligible to vote, and more than 33 million did not vote in the first round.[Associated Press]

Key facts

  • Flavio Bolsonaro took 47 percent of the first-round vote, narrowly ahead of Lula at 45 percent.[Al Jazeera]
  • A CNT/MDA survey released Saturday put Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Lula at 45 percent.[Al Jazeera]
  • An earlier CNT/MDA survey had Bolsonaro ahead 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent.[Al Jazeera]
  • Almost 160 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in the runoff.[Associated Press]
  • More than 33 million voters, about 21 percent of the electorate, did not vote in the first round.[Associated Press]
  • Lula announced a 15 percent increase in Bolsa Familia payments in September, which the government said will cost 5.8 billion reais for the rest of the year.[Associated Press]

What remains uncertain

  • Polls show a narrow race, but they are estimates, and the runoff result is not yet known.[Al Jazeera]
  • The 5.8 billion reais cost of the welfare increase is the government's own figure.[Associated Press]

Sources

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.