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Migration Policy Institute estimates Trump deportations at 660,000, below White House target

Associated Press reports a Migration Policy Institute analysis of FOIA-obtained public data puts deportations on track for about 660,000 over the past year, below the White House target.

Updated Oct 22, 2026 · 12:14 UTC1 reports

The short version

  • A Migration Policy Institute report estimates the Trump administration is on track to deport about 660,000 people over the past year.[Associated Press]
  • The estimate falls short of the administration's promised 1 million annual deportations but is 26% above the 2021-2024 yearly average under Joe Biden.[Associated Press]
  • According to the report, voluntary departures reached an all-time high of 170,000 since January 2025, and interior arrests rose to 39% of deportations by July.[Associated Press]
  • The administration's own document claims 1.2 million deportations or removals, a discrepancy that could not immediately be reconciled with the report.[Associated Press]

Key facts

  • The Migration Policy Institute report estimates about 660,000 deportations over the past year, based on publicly available data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests.[Associated Press]
  • The estimated 660,000 deportations represent a 26% increase from the 2021-2024 yearly average under President Joe Biden.[Associated Press]
  • The Department of Homeland Security carried out 980,000 deportations during the first 18 months of the second Trump administration, according to the analysis.[Associated Press]
  • Voluntary departures reached 170,000 since Trump returned to office in January 2025, which the report describes as an all-time high.[Associated Press]
  • Interior arrests rose from about 28% of deportations in 2025 to 39% by July of this year.[Associated Press]
  • Migrants intercepted at the southern border made up 69% of all deportations between January 20, 2025, and July 31, 2026.[Associated Press]
  • The analysis says most people deported have never been convicted of a crime.[Associated Press]
  • The Department of Homeland Security stopped publicly releasing similar immigration data in January 2025.[Associated Press]

What remains uncertain

  • The administration's document claims 1.2 million deportations or removals, and that figure could not immediately be reconciled with the report's estimates.[Associated Press]
  • Some immigrant advocates and lawyers say some people accept voluntary departure simply to get out of ICE detention; this is their claim, not an established finding.[Associated Press]
  • The 660,000 figure is a projection for the past year built from FOIA-obtained data, because the government stopped publicly releasing regular figures in January 2025.[Associated Press]

Sources

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.