Politics

Fox News poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied at 49% in Texas

The Fox News poll was released Wednesday; AdImpact puts total ad spending just under $340 million.

Updated Oct 23, 2026 · 12:24 UTC2 reports

The short version

A Fox News poll released Wednesday shows Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% each among Texas likely voters.[Fox News]
In the prior reading last month, Talarico led Paxton 51% to 49% among likely voters.[Fox News]
Total ad spending is just under $340 million, according to AdImpact, and Elon Musk has given $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund.[Associated Press]
The tie falls within the likely voter sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 points, so the race leader is uncertain.[Fox News]

A Fox News poll finds Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% each among Texas likely voters.[Fox News]
The Fox News poll was conducted October 15-19, 2026, with 2,011 Texas registered voters.[Fox News]
The likely voter subsample of 1,398 has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 points.[Fox News]
Talarico led Paxton 51% to 49% among likely voters in the poll's prior reading last month.[Fox News]
Total ad spending has reached just under $340 million since each candidate secured the nomination, according to AdImpact.[Associated Press]
Elon Musk has contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which gave $158 million to Texas PAC, the largest contributor to Paxton's campaign.[Associated Press]
Musk also gave $10 million to the Lone Star Liberty PAC, which supports Paxton.[Associated Press]

The poll's tie falls within its likely voter margin of sampling error, so the race's leader is uncertain.[Fox News]
The reporting does not establish how the Musk-linked spending will affect the outcome of the race.[Associated Press]

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.