Current El Niño could drive 451,000 additional heat deaths, report projects

The short version

• A study by the Climate Impact Lab estimates that 451,000 additional heat-related deaths could occur during the current El Niño compared to an average year.[CBS News · Al Jazeera]
• The highest impacts are forecast in Global South countries, including Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, Niger, and Chad.[CBS News · Al Jazeera]
• The World Meteorological Organization warned the ongoing weather pattern could become the strongest on record and peak late in 2026.[CBS News]
• Some experts question the exactness of the regional distribution projections, while others consider the total conservative because it excludes indirect disasters.[Al Jazeera]

Key facts

• The Climate Impact Lab projects 451,000 excess heat-related deaths between June 2026 and February 2027 under the current El Niño.[CBS News · Al Jazeera]
• Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad are estimated to record over 65,000 excess heat-related deaths combined.[CBS News · Al Jazeera]
• The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia are expected to collectively record nearly 40,000 heat-related deaths.[CBS News · Al Jazeera]
• The World Meteorological Organization forecast that this El Niño could become the strongest on record and reach peak intensity toward late 2026.[CBS News]
• The U.S. Climate Prediction Center expects the El Niño pattern to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter and potentially last into spring.[CBS News]

Sources

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.

• El Niño could cause 451,000 more heat deaths compared to normal year, group saysCBS News - US
• Scientists warn super El Nino could cause 450,000 deaths: Should we worry?Al Jazeera