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Environment & Climate

Coral study links intensifying El Niño events to modern climate change

A study finds post-industrial El Niño patterns are unusually strong, Deutsche Welle reports.

Updated Sep 12, 2026 · 11:47 UTC1 reports

Latest update: Forecasters warned that emerging Pacific conditions could produce a record-setting Super El Niño, threatening severe heatwaves and coral bleaching in 2027.

The short version

  • A study led by Julia Cole examining Galapagos coral records concluded that El Niño events have grown substantially stronger compared to pre-industrial times.[Deutsche Welle]
  • Pacific ocean temperatures rose more than 3 degrees Celsius in July 2026, which German forecasters warn could develop into a record-setting event.[Deutsche Welle]
  • External researchers noted limitations in the study, citing regional constraints, local conditions, and gaps covering more than half of the millennium record.[Deutsche Welle]
  • Marine scientist Thomas Felis cautioned that an emerging Super El Niño could trigger widespread coral bleaching and heatwaves in 2027.[Deutsche Welle]

Key facts

  • Analysis of Galapagos corals led by Julia Cole concluded that El Niño events have strengthened markedly compared to the pre-industrial period.[Deutsche Welle]
  • NOAA recorded Pacific ocean temperature anomalies exceeding 3 degrees Celsius in July 2026.[Deutsche Welle]
  • The German Meteorological Service projected that current Pacific conditions could produce one of the strongest recorded El Niño events.[Deutsche Welle]
  • Julia Cole stated that the coral record covers slightly less than half of the years across the past millennium.[Deutsche Welle]

What remains uncertain

  • The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology notes that whether global warming intensifies strong El Niño events is still an active research debate.[Deutsche Welle]
  • Meteorologist Andreas Fink observed that regional limitations to the eastern Pacific and dependence on local conditions create uncertainty when comparing coral proxies to modern measurements.[Deutsche Welle]

Sources

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.