IEA projects steep oil supply decline as regional conflicts strain refineries

The short version

• The International Energy Agency warned that ongoing conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine have pushed global refining operations to capacity limits.[CNBC]
• Global oil supply is projected to contract by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, representing a roughly 6% drop from 2025.[CNBC]
• The agency deepened its demand drop projection for this year to 2.5 million barrels per day, down from an earlier 1.6 million forecast.[CNBC]
• Crude prices dipped following the report, with Brent falling to $104.44 and West Texas Intermediate to $99.86 per barrel.[CNBC]

Key facts

• The International Energy Agency warned that the global oil refining system has been stretched to capacity limits due to wars involving Iran and Ukraine.[CNBC]
• World oil supply is anticipated to decrease by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, roughly 6% below 2025 levels.[CNBC]
• Global oil demand is projected to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day this year, an increase from the previously anticipated drop of 1.6 million barrels per day in August.[CNBC]
• November Brent crude traded down 3% at $104.44 per barrel, and October West Texas Intermediate slipped 2.6% to $99.86 per barrel.[CNBC]

Sources

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.

• IEA warns global oil refining system ‘stretched to the limit’ as Iran, Ukraine wars tighten marketCNBC