Environment & Climate
Forecasters project strong El Niño could break records in late 2026
The Hill reports that forecasters see high odds of a historic climate event with major economic risks.
The short version
- The Climate Prediction Center estimated the probability of a super El Niño at over 90%, with potential to become one of the strongest recorded.[The Hill]
- National forecasters said there is a 75% chance the October-December 2026 season could exceed previous records dating to 1950.[The Hill]
- Analysts warn the phenomenon could drive up global food commodity prices and exacerbate worldwide food insecurity.[The Hill]
Key facts
- The Climate Prediction Center placed the probability of a very strong or super El Niño above 90%, noting it could become one of the strongest on record.[The Hill]
- Forecasters estimated a 75% chance that the event during the October-December 2026 season will exceed previous strengths dating back to 1950.[The Hill]
- A Goldman Sachs analysis projects that El Niño could lead to a roughly 16% rise in global food commodity prices.[The Hill]
- The World Food Program projects at least 49 million individuals will face acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.[The Hill]
What remains uncertain
- The projections for record-breaking intensity in late 2026 and related global food commodity impacts remain probabilistic forecasts rather than certain outcomes.[The Hill]
Sources
Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.