Politics
Forecaster shifts Senate race to toss-up as Republican odds decline
Decision Desk HQ shifted its forecast between parties before giving Republicans a 51 percent edge, The Hill reports.
The short version
- Decision Desk HQ moved its Senate forecast to a 51 percent Democratic advantage on Wednesday before resetting it to 51 percent for Republicans on Thursday.[The Hill]
- The model previously gave Republicans a 60 percent likelihood of keeping their majority two months ago.[The Hill]
- Analyst Geoffrey Skelley characterized the chamber's balance as effectively a coin flip, citing very slight Democratic leans in Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska.[The Hill]
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged concern regarding the possibility of Republicans losing control of the chamber.[The Hill]
Key facts
- Decision Desk HQ adjusted its Senate model to give Democrats a 51 percent chance on Wednesday before shifting back to 51 percent for Republicans on Thursday.[The Hill]
- Republicans held a 60 percent probability of maintaining Senate control in the same forecast two months earlier.[The Hill]
- Chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley identified Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska as toss-up races currently showing a very slight Democratic lean.[The Hill]
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed he is worried about losing control of the chamber.[The Hill]
What remains uncertain
- Which party will ultimately capture the Senate majority remains uncertain, with analysts describing the balance of power as an effective coin flip.[The Hill]
Sources
Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.