Business & Finance
Election prediction markets surge as states challenge platforms under gambling laws
Associated Press reports trading on election outcomes is climbing while states try to ban platforms as unlicensed casinos.
The short version
- Trading on election outcomes is rapidly expanding while state officials attempt to outlaw prediction platforms under state gambling laws.[Associated Press]
- Election administrators express concern over the trend, and half of all states already enforce broad statutory bans against wagering on races.[Associated Press]
- Prediction market Kalshi announced a three-year suspension and fine against North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout for betting on her own race.[Associated Press]
- Critics warn outside actors could place substantial wagers to artificially portray a candidate as a leading contender.[Associated Press]
Key facts
- Prediction market trading around elections is surging as several states attempt to prohibit the venues under gambling regulations.[Associated Press]
- Half of all U.S. states have laws that broadly prohibit wagering on elections.[Associated Press]
- Prediction platform Kalshi revealed on August 31 that it fined and issued a three-year suspension to North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout for trading on her race.[Associated Press]
- Maryland election administrator Jared DeMarinis stated that the growth of prediction markets is a troubling issue for election administrators nationwide.[Associated Press]
What remains uncertain
- Whether prediction markets will successfully resist state legal challenges and how potential manipulation from large outside bets could alter election outcomes remain unclear.[Associated Press]
Sources
Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.
- 2026’s elections could test how heavy trading on prediction markets affects races and resultsAssociated Press · Wire: associated-press