Politics
California Republican David Valadao faces tough reelection amid shifting Latino voter sentiment
The incumbent navigates a 16-point Democratic registration deficit and multi-million-dollar campaign spending in the Central Valley.
Latest update: Added details on Democratic nominee Randy Villegas defeating Jasmeet Bains in the primary and Valadao's past presidential voting positions.
The short version
- Representative David Valadao is defending his seat in California's 22nd Congressional District, where two out of three voters are Hispanic and Democrats hold a 16-point registration edge.[Associated Press]
- AP-NORC polling shows national approval for Donald Trump among Hispanic adults dropped 18 percentage points between March 2025 and July 2026.[Associated Press]
- Democratic challenger Randy Villegas won a competitive primary against moderate Jasmeet Bains, drawing focus to healthcare and federal spending cuts.[Associated Press]
- Outside groups have flooded the swing district with more than $25 million in combined ad spending and reservations ahead of Election Day.[Associated Press]
Key facts
- Two out of three voters in California's 22nd Congressional District are Hispanic.[Associated Press]
- AP-NORC polling indicates Donald Trump's national approval among Hispanic adults fell 18 percentage points between March 2025 and July 2026.[Associated Press]
- A 2025 redistricting blueprint left Democrats with a 16-point voter registration advantage in the district.[Associated Press]
- AdImpact data shows Republicans have spent or reserved over $13 million in campaign messaging, compared to $12.6 million by Democrats.[Associated Press]
- Randy Villegas secured the Democratic nomination after defeating moderate state lawmaker Jasmeet Bains in the primary.[Associated Press]
- Valadao withheld support from Trump in 2016, backed him in 2020, and declined to reveal his 2024 vote.[Associated Press]
What remains uncertain
- Congressional Democrats estimate up to 57,000 district constituents could lose Medicaid coverage under new federal requirements, which Valadao disputes as overstated.[Associated Press]
Sources
Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.
- After years of defying the odds, California’s David Valadao faces new test as Latinos turn on TrumpAssociated Press · Wire: associated-press