Scientists warn 2026–27 El Nino could reach record intensity amid climate change

The short version

• Meteorologists and international agencies report that the developing 2026–27 El Nino event, interacting with existing marine heatwaves, may become the strongest on record.
• The phenomenon is expected to disrupt agriculture, strain global food supplies, and impact marine ecosystems, with early indicators seen in declining anchovy stocks and seabird mortalities across the Pacific.
• Economic forecasters and humanitarian groups warn of trillions of dollars in potential economic damages and significant increases in global hunger.
• Meteorologists project the event will peak between December and February, with 2027 likely becoming the hottest year recorded.

Key facts

• The Met Office projects equatorial Pacific ocean temperatures could rise by up to 3C during the peak of the 2026–27 El Nino between late 2026 and early 2027.[Al Jazeera]
• The World Meteorological Organization launched a major mobilization of forecast and climate services in response to the emerging weather pattern.[Al Jazeera]
• Economists at Citigroup estimate that a super El Nino could generate up to $7 trillion in worldwide economic losses over a five-year window.[Al Jazeera]
• The World Food Programme projects that 274 million people could suffer acute hunger by late 2027, an increase of 49 million relative to current levels.[Al Jazeera]
• Disruptions in marine food webs have already been observed, including vanishing anchovy populations and elevated seabird strandings along Pacific coasts from California to Ecuador.[Al Jazeera]
• Met Office scientists assess that 2027 is very likely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record due to oceanic heat transfer to the atmosphere.[Al Jazeera]

Sources

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.

• El Nino: A phenomenon supercharged by climate changeAl Jazeera