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Global bond selloff drives borrowing costs to multi-decade highs

Mounting inflation fears and high public debt loads pushed benchmark yields higher across major economies.

The short version

  • Government bond yields spiked across major economies, with UK gilts reaching 2008 highs, German bunds touching 2011 levels, and Japan's 10-year yield topping 3% for the first time since 1996.[CNBC · Associated Press · France 24 · The Guardian]
  • US 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 4.81% early Wednesday before easing to 4.77% on Thursday as US government debt surpassed $40 trillion.[Associated Press · France 24 · Associated Press]
  • The bond market rout was driven by inflation concerns and heightened energy worries as renewed US-Iran conflict lifted Brent crude to around $95 per barrel.[Associated Press · The Guardian]
  • Deutsche Bank economists estimated the gilt yield surge could cut the UK government's fiscal headroom from £26bn to under £14bn, while UK five-year swap rates touched highs unseen since October 2023.[The Guardian · The Guardian]

Key facts

  • The German 10-year bund yield rose 4 basis points to 3.375% on Wednesday morning, its highest level since 2011.[CNBC]
  • Japan's 10-year government bond yield surpassed 3%, reaching a level not recorded since 1996.[CNBC · Associated Press · France 24]
  • The 10-year UK gilt yield jumped to between 5.25% and just below 5.3%, marking its highest point since 2008.[CNBC · The Guardian]
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.81% early Wednesday before falling back to 4.77% on Thursday.[Associated Press · Associated Press]
  • Total US government debt has crossed $40 trillion amid widespread concerns regarding sovereign debt burdens.[France 24]
  • Renewed strikes between the US and Iran stoked energy supply worries, pushing Brent crude to approximately $95 to $95.56 a barrel.[Associated Press · The Guardian]
  • UK five-year swap rates climbed above 4.52% on Wednesday, setting a high not seen since October 2023.[The Guardian]

What remains uncertain

  • Deutsche Bank economists estimate that UK fiscal headroom ahead of the October 28 budget could shrink from £26bn to below £14bn due to elevated gilt yields.[The Guardian]

Sources

Outlet counts describe coverage, not independent confirmation. Reports may share a wire service or original source.