Business & Finance
US job growth projected to rebound to 65,000 in August as hiring remains constrained
Forecasters expect modest job gains and low layoffs alongside persistent hiring slowdowns, wage stagnation, and labor supply constraints.
The short version
- Forecasters surveyed by FactSet anticipate the U.S. Labor Department will report an addition of roughly 65,000 net jobs in August following a 23,000 drop in July.
- The overall labor market reflects a low-turnover pattern where layoffs remain historically rare but new hiring is sluggish and wage growth is subdued.
- Labor supply is shrinking due to baby boomer retirements and federal immigration policy shifts, prompting firms to adopt technology and AI rather than expand headcount.
Key facts
- A FactSet consensus forecast projects the U.S. economy added 65,000 jobs in August, with unemployment expected to rise slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%.[Associated Press]
- Gross monthly hiring declined 5% to below 5.1 million, while weekly unemployment claims have remained steady between 200,000 and 230,000.[Associated Press]
- Over 1.3 million individuals have exited the U.S. labor force over the past year, driven by demographic retirements and immigration restrictions.[Associated Press]
- The Trump administration ended work authorization for roughly 330,000 Haitian and Syrian immigrants on July 27, removing them from official unemployment calculations.[Associated Press]
What remains uncertain
- The exact August job numbers and unemployment figures remain preliminary estimates subject to official confirmation by the Labor Department.[Associated Press]
- Economists suspect July's decline of 50,000 local education jobs stemmed from a seasonal adjustment glitch, but the full extent of a potential August rebound is unconfirmed.[Associated Press]