Environment & Climate
UN weather agency warns intensifying El Niño could reach historic levels
The World Meteorological Organization forecasts near certainty that the climate pattern will persist into early 2027, heightening risks of extreme heat, droughts, and floods.
The short version
- The World Meteorological Organization announced that the current El Niño is nearly certain to persist through February and could become the strongest recorded in four decades of monitoring.
- The phenomenon is expected to alter precipitation and temperature patterns worldwide, elevating the risk of droughts, floods, and record-setting heat.
- United Nations officials warned disaster response agencies, agricultural sectors, and energy planners to prepare immediately for intensifying global impacts.
Key facts
- The World Meteorological Organization stated there is a nearly 100 percent probability that El Niño conditions will continue through February.[Al Jazeera]
- WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the current trajectory could make this event stronger than any observed since comprehensive monitoring began 40 years ago.[Al Jazeera]
- Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific measured between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above average from late July to mid-August, with some subsurface areas exceeding 8°C above normal.[Al Jazeera]
- The WMO expects the event to peak near the end of 2026, with associated climatic disruptions continuing well into 2027.[Al Jazeera]
What remains uncertain
- The exact peak intensity of the event and whether it will ultimately surpass the 2024 global average temperature record depend on how ocean heat transfers to the atmosphere over the coming year.[Al Jazeera]