Business & Finance
Piper Sandler raises Robinhood price target on expected prediction market growth
Analyst Patrick Moley projects football-related trading on Robinhood's Rothera joint venture will drive revenue in the second half of 2026.
The short version
- Piper Sandler increased Robinhood's price target to $145 from $135 and raised its multi-year earnings forecasts.
- The projection follows regulatory approval from the CFTC for Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna, to list football contracts.
- Analysts estimate Robinhood users will trade nearly 30 billion event contracts from September through December 2026.
- The forecast depends on whether sports-related prediction market engagement will scale from soccer World Cup levels to American football.
Key facts
- Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley raised Robinhood's 2026 and 2027 earnings per share projections by 5% and 7% respectively, boosting the stock's price target to $145 from $135.[CNBC]
- Rothera, a CFTC-regulated prediction markets exchange launched in June as a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna, secured regulatory approval to list football contracts for game wins and point spreads.[CNBC]
- Piper Sandler projects Robinhood users will trade approximately 29.7 billion event contracts between September and December 2026, generating around $320 million in revenue.[CNBC]
- Robinhood's average monthly prediction market trading volume increased 88% from June through August compared to the first five months of the year, aided by World Cup activity.[CNBC]
- Moley estimates that roughly 23% of Robinhood's prediction market volume has migrated from platform partner Kalshi to Rothera since June.[CNBC]
What remains uncertain
- Whether user trading volume during the NFL and college football seasons will match Piper Sandler's modeled forecast of 29.7 billion contracts remains unverified until fall trading figures are reported.[CNBC]