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Costco posts 5.4% August sales growth as analysts raise concerns over traffic and membership renewals

A modest monthly sales beat highlights pressure on the retailer's valuation amid slowing shopper traffic and lower renewal rates among younger members.

The short version

  • Costco reported a 5.4% increase in same-store sales for the four weeks ending August 30, or 6.2% when adjusted for a Labor Day calendar shift.
  • Analysts and commentators noted slowing customer foot traffic and lower membership renewal rates among younger consumers who join online.
  • Costco's shares traded at $929, down roughly 15% from their May peak while valued around 41 times forward earnings estimates.
  • Investors are awaiting the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings release for details on management's strategy to address membership retention.

Key facts

  • For the four-week period ending August 30, Costco's comparable sales rose 5.4% excluding gasoline and currency fluctuations.[CNBC]
  • Wells Fargo calculated that adjusting for a 75-basis-point drag from a shifted Labor Day resulted in a 6.2% sales increase, narrowly topping expectations of 6.1%.[CNBC]
  • Customer foot traffic growth slowed by 110 basis points, dipping below Costco's 12-month trailing average.[CNBC]
  • Costco shares were flat at $929, down roughly 15% from their all-time high of nearly $1,097 reached in May.[CNBC]
  • The company trades near 41 times forward earnings estimates while relying heavily on recurring membership fees for operating income.[CNBC]

What remains uncertain

  • The specific initiatives Costco management intends to deploy to improve younger online member retention remain unspecified ahead of the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report.[CNBC]

Sources