Environment & Climate

Report warns UN aquaculture growth targets could strain wild fish stocks

Modelling suggests meeting global fish farming goals without ingredient safeguards could divert significant portions of wild catches to animal feed.

Updated Sep 3, 2026 · 17:25 UTC1 reports

The short version

A study by the Changing Markets Foundation and the University of British Columbia warns that the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's target to expand aquaculture by 75% by 2040 could severely deplete wild fish stocks.
Without policy restrictions, up to 41.4 million tonnes of wild fish—representing 46% of the 2020 global wild catch—could be ground into feed for carnivorous farmed species like salmon and shrimp.
Advocates and researchers argue the practice threatens marine ecosystems and food security in regions like West Africa, where local communities face declining fish availability.
Campaigners are calling on the FAO to adopt explicit safeguards prioritizing wild fish for direct human consumption and incentivizing low-feed aquaculture.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization aims to expand aquaculture production by 75% by 2040 under its 'blue transformation' agenda to address global food demand.[The Guardian]
Modelling by the Changing Markets Foundation and the University of British Columbia found that feed-intensive aquaculture expansion could consume up to 41.4 million tonnes of wild fish annually by 2040, equivalent to 46% of the 2020 global wild-fish catch.[The Guardian]
Under projected baseline trends, the researchers estimate that 34.6 million tonnes of wild fish would be caught and fed to farmed species annually by 2040.[The Guardian]
The FAO's current roadmap and sustainable aquaculture guidelines do not specify which fish species or farming methods should be utilized to achieve the 75% target.[The Guardian]
UN Special Rapporteur on climate change Elisa Morgera stated in a June report that diverting nutritionally valuable fish to fishmeal and fish oil raises serious human rights concerns regarding food access.[The Guardian]
Annual fish consumption per person in Senegal decreased by more than 10kg between 1999 and 2019 amid competition between fishmeal plants and local food supplies.[The Guardian]

It remains unknown whether the FAO will update its aquaculture guidelines to incorporate formal safeguards or specify production systems that favor low-trophic species.[The Guardian]
The exact future wild fish demand will depend heavily on market choices regarding which farmed species and alternative feed ingredients are scaled.[The Guardian]