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Fed Governor Waller says September rate decision depends on upcoming inflation figures

Christopher Waller indicated a willingness to hold interest rates steady if inflation slows, though a hotter-than-expected August report could prompt a hike.

The short version

  • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated he is inclined to keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming September 15–16 meeting if incoming inflation data continues to moderate.
  • Waller noted that borrowing costs remain only slightly restrictive, meaning an acceleration in inflation could lead him to vote for an increase.
  • His stance follows comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who previously suggested further tightening may be needed, causing market expectations for a rate hike to fluctuate.
  • The central bank's policy direction will hinge on the government's August inflation report scheduled for release on September 11.

Key facts

  • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that upcoming inflation data will determine whether he votes to raise interest rates or keep them steady at the September 15–16 meeting.[CNBC · Associated Press]
  • The government is scheduled to publish August consumer inflation data on September 11 ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.[CNBC · Associated Press]
  • Waller highlighted that a three-month inflation measure favored by the Fed dropped from 4.76% in February to 3.05% recently.[CNBC]
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated the prior week that inflation has not shown sufficient improvement, leading investors to raise the likelihood of a September rate hike.[CNBC · Associated Press]
  • Market-implied probabilities for a September interest rate increase dropped to 54.6% following Waller's remarks, according to CME Group data.[CNBC]

What remains uncertain

  • Whether the Fed will hike or hold rates at the September meeting remains unresolved, depending directly on the upcoming August inflation readings.[CNBC · Associated Press]

Sources