Environment & Climate
Australian forecasters predict record-breaking El Niño as research links intensity to climate change
The Bureau of Meteorology projects Pacific sea surface temperatures could reach historic highs, while the UN warns disruptions could persist into early 2027.
The short version
- Australia's Bureau of Meteorology forecasts the current El Niño could become the strongest on record since 1950, potentially exceeding 3°C above average in key equatorial Pacific waters.
- The UN weather agency warns the strengthening system is likely to persist until early 2027, posing broad risks to global economies and communities.
- Preliminary research from the University of Melbourne suggests climate change has made an event of this scale six times more likely.
- Droughts, fires, and water shortages are already emerging in parts of the Asia-Pacific region, while Australia anticipates dry, hot conditions in its south and east.
Key facts
- Australia's Bureau of Meteorology forecasts that the developing El Niño will exceed the warmest levels recorded since reliable tracking began in 1950.[The Guardian]
- Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region warmed by over 2°C between February and July, a rate of increase unprecedented in the historical record according to the BoM.[The Guardian]
- Forecasts indicate regional Pacific sea surface temperatures could peak higher than 3°C above average, surpassing the prior record of 2.6°C set in January 1983.[The Guardian]
- The United Nations weather agency announced that the phenomenon is intensifying and will likely continue into early 2027.[The Guardian]
- Preliminary research by University of Melbourne scientists estimates that climate change increased the likelihood of an El Niño of this intensity by a factor of six.[The Guardian]
- Current El Niño conditions have already contributed to droughts in Papua New Guinea along with wildfires and resource shortages in Indonesia.[The Guardian]
What remains uncertain
- The University of Melbourne study attributing the increased likelihood of this extreme event to climate change is preliminary and currently undergoing peer review.[The Guardian]
- The BoM notes that the sheer ocean temperature strength of an El Niño does not guarantee proportionally severe terrestrial impacts across all regions.[The Guardian]