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Middle East conflict and natural gas spikes drive up global fertilizer costs

Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and plant shutdowns threaten agricultural supply chains, accelerating interest in biological fertilizer alternatives.

Updated Sep 3, 2026 · 10:18 UTC1 reports

The short version

  • Conflict in Iran and elevated natural gas prices have driven global fertilizer costs higher, with urea prices reaching over $850 per metric ton in April.
  • The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted roughly one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade, threatening supply to vulnerable nations.
  • Damaged manufacturing facilities in the Middle East and Russia may keep prices elevated through at least 2028, according to agricultural lender CoBank.
  • Firms developing microbial nitrogen alternatives are seeking to expand production, though current biotechnology replaces only a portion of synthetic fertilizer needs.

Key facts

  • In April, urea fertilizer prices exceeded $850 per metric ton, representing an 80% surge compared to pre-conflict levels and the highest pricing since 2022.[MIT Technology Review]
  • Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly one-third of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade, has been effectively halted by the conflict.[MIT Technology Review]
  • Natural gas serves as both an energy source and a chemical feedstock for ammonia production, an industry that generates roughly 2% of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions.[MIT Technology Review]
  • A CoBank report indicates 31 ammonia plants in the Middle East have been affected or closed, in addition to 20 damaged facilities in Russia.[MIT Technology Review]
  • Microbial fertilizer producer Pivot Bio states its genetically edited products can currently replace approximately 25% of synthetic fertilizer usage, with goals to reach 40% to 50%.[MIT Technology Review]

What remains uncertain

  • The long-term trajectory of global fertilizer prices remains uncertain, though CoBank projects elevated levels could persist through at least 2028.[MIT Technology Review]
  • The extent to which biological and microbial alternatives can reliably scale and substitute for synthetic chemical fertilizers across varied crops and climates is still developing.[MIT Technology Review]

Sources