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Environment & Climate

Prediction markets expand weather and climate betting amid regulatory and ethical scrutiny

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are increasing offerings on climate events and temperatures, drawing criticism from scientists over the gamification of disasters.

Updated Sep 2, 2026 · 15:18 UTC1 reports

The short version

  • Prediction market platform Kalshi partnered with the Weather Company to use its data to resolve weather bets and display markets on the Weather Channel app.
  • Wagers on short-term temperatures and long-term climate indicators have grown rapidly, drawing warnings from scientists about trivializing human suffering and creating perverse incentives.
  • The expansion comes as prediction platforms navigate legal battles, including a recent federal appeals court ruling allowing states to regulate prediction markets as gambling.

Key facts

  • Kalshi reached an agreement with the Weather Company to verify wagering outcomes using weather data, with Kalshi markets set to appear on the Weather Channel app.[The Guardian]
  • According to Kalshi, weather and climate prediction markets expanded 500% over the past year to reach a valuation of $1.1 billion.[The Guardian]
  • Platforms host wagers on various environmental benchmarks, including daily heat records, coral die-offs in Hawaii, and water level changes at Lake Mead.[The Guardian]
  • Polymarket accepted $1.2 million in wagers regarding the scale of Los Angeles wildfires last year on its international platform, while Kalshi stated it avoids wildfire markets due to perverse incentives.[The Guardian]
  • A federal appeals court recently ruled that individual states have the authority to regulate prediction markets under gambling laws following litigation initiated by Nevada against Kalshi.[The Guardian]

What remains uncertain

  • The extent to which market odds might influence or distort public trust in official meteorological forecasts and climate science remains disputed between platform advocates and scientific critics.[The Guardian]
  • How future state-level gambling regulations will restrict or reshape the operations of prediction market exchanges across the United States is still developing.[The Guardian]

Sources