Environment & Climate
UN reports Earth will exceed 1.5C warming threshold in coming years
A United Nations Environment Programme report states that crossing the Paris climate limit is unavoidable and outlines a strategy to peak warming before lowering temperatures.
The short version
- The UN Environment Programme reported that global temperatures will surpass the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold set in the 2015 Paris accord within the next few years.
- Even under the most optimistic emissions reduction scenarios, global heating is projected to reach approximately 1.8 degrees Celsius before any potential decline.
- Vulnerable communities, coastal cities, food systems, and ecosystems face decades of heightened risks during the anticipated overshoot period.
- The proposed strategy relies on cutting fossil fuel emissions alongside atmospheric carbon dioxide removal, though experts debate the feasibility and scale of removal technologies.
Key facts
- The United Nations Environment Programme released a report concluding that global warming will exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius target set in the Paris climate agreement within the next few years.[Associated Press · The Guardian]
- The report projects that under the most optimistic policy pathways, global temperatures will peak around 1.8 degrees Celsius around mid-century before potentially cooling toward the 1.5-degree mark by 2100.[Associated Press · The Guardian]
- Current government policies are projected to push warming between 2.3 and 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial averages by 2100.[Associated Press · The Guardian]
- Current warming is measured at approximately 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels on a 20-year average.[Associated Press]
- The report warns that heating up to 3 degrees Celsius could cause glaciers to lose more than 25% of their mass by 2100, raise sea levels by up to 13 centimeters, and lead to a drop in global food production of up to 14% by 2050 without adaptation.[The Guardian]
- Returning to 1.5 degrees Celsius requires halving global emissions by 2035 and deploying large-scale carbon dioxide removal, though traditional methods like tree planting could only reduce temperatures by a maximum of 0.1 degree Celsius.[Associated Press · The Guardian]
What remains uncertain
- Outside scientists question the feasibility and economic viability of relying on advanced carbon dioxide removal technologies to reverse peak warming.[Associated Press]
- The report notes that the Earth's natural capacity to absorb and store carbon remains uncertain and is expected to decline as global temperatures rise.[The Guardian]