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Business & Finance

UK long-term borrowing costs reach 28-year high ahead of October Budget

Yields on 30-year gilts reached 5.89% amid a global bond sell-off fueled by inflation and energy market concerns.

The short version

  • UK government 30-year gilt yields rose to 5.89%, reaching their highest point since early 1998, while 10-year yields hit levels not seen since 2008.
  • The spike in global borrowing costs is driven by rising oil prices linked to the Iran conflict, tech sector borrowing, and interest rate expectations in the US and Japan.
  • Higher debt servicing costs threaten to reduce fiscal headroom for Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey ahead of the October 28 Budget.
  • Downing Street reaffirmed its commitment to fiscal rules, while economic observers warn the yield surge will increase government debt interest.

Key facts

  • The yield on 30-year UK government gilts rose to 5.89%, marking the highest borrowing rate for that duration since 1998.[The Guardian · BBC News]
  • Benchmark 10-year gilt yields increased to 5.25%, the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis.[The Guardian · BBC News]
  • Oil prices rose 1.7% to $92 following exchanges of fire in the Iran conflict, escalating inflation concerns among investors.[The Guardian]
  • Finance ministers and central bank leaders from the G20 gathered in North Carolina to discuss global economic conditions.[The Guardian · BBC News]
  • Japanese 10-year bond yields climbed to their highest level since the 1990s as markets anticipated potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.[The Guardian]

What remains uncertain

  • It remains uncertain whether sustained yield increases will alter the Office for Budget Responsibility's formal forecasts for the October Budget.[The Guardian]
  • Specific spending cut policies under consideration by the US administration to manage sovereign debt remain unannounced.[The Guardian]

Sources