Business & Finance
Prediction market traders project modest U.S. hiring rebound in August
Speculators on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket anticipate positive payroll growth slightly below consensus economist forecasts.
The short version
- Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket expect U.S. job growth to recover after payroll contractions in July.
- Bettors place roughly 48% to 50% odds on the economy adding more than 50,000 jobs, trailing the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 53,000.
- Official employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Key facts
- Kalshi traders price a 50-50 chance that the U.S. economy added more than 50,000 jobs in August, while Polymarket traders assign a 48% probability.[CNBC]
- The Dow Jones consensus estimate projects 53,000 jobs added in August, following job losses in July.[CNBC]
- Kalshi contracts price approximately a 1-in-4 probability of continued job losses in August, as well as a 1-in-4 chance of gaining over 80,000 jobs.[CNBC]
- Both economists and prediction market participants overestimated job growth in June and July.[CNBC]
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish official August employment figures on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.[CNBC]
What remains uncertain
- The exact scale and direction of August payroll changes remain unconfirmed until the release of official Bureau of Labor Statistics data.[CNBC]