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Australian house prices projected to drop up to 10 percent as further rate hikes loom

Economists predict a historic national decline in property values, though the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain its focus on combatting inflation.

The short version

  • Australian property values are declining in over 90% of suburbs due to high borrowing costs, a weak economy, and tax changes for investors.
  • Economists project national property prices will fall by about 10% from their recent peak over the next six to nine months, representing a potentially historic postwar correction.
  • Despite the downturn, experts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to proceed with another interest rate hike to address persistent inflation.

Key facts

  • Data from Cotality indicates that home prices are currently falling in more than 90% of Australian suburbs.[The Guardian]
  • AMP chief economist Shane Oliver estimates that average home values will decline for the next six to nine months, leading to an overall national drop of approximately 10% from their recent peak.[The Guardian]
  • CBA analysts predict property prices will eventually fall by 12% to 13% in Sydney and Melbourne, and by 8% in Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide.[The Guardian]
  • Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock previously stated that the housing downturn is not the primary factor for rate decisions, noting that property prices remain 50% higher than in 2020.[The Guardian]
  • CBA's head of Australian economics, Belinda Allen, projected that GDP growth for the quarter ending in June could be as low as 0.1%.[The Guardian]

What remains uncertain

  • Whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will proceed with a fourth rate hike at its upcoming meetings remains subject to upcoming economic indicators and board deliberations.[The Guardian]

Sources