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EU and UN consider replacement options as peacekeeping mandate in Lebanon nears expiration

European officials and UN leadership are assessing potential military and civilian missions as the decades-long peacekeeping mandate in southern Lebanon approaches its December 2026 conclusion.

The short version

  • The UNIFIL peacekeeping mandate in southern Lebanon is set to end on December 31, 2026, following pressure from Israel.
  • The EU is evaluating a three-year mission to advise and train Lebanese military and security forces, while the UN Secretary-General has outlined succession plans involving smaller troop deployments.
  • Analysts warn that an absence of an international presence or lack of a broader political agreement could worsen power vacuums or reproduce existing security limitations.

Key facts

  • UNIFIL's peacekeeping mandate in southern Lebanon is scheduled to expire on December 31, 2026.[Al Jazeera]
  • The diplomatic service of the European Union circulated a proposal for a three-year military and civilian mission to train and advise Lebanese police and armed forces.[Al Jazeera]
  • UN Secretary-General António Guterres submitted three succession options to the UN Security Council, ranging from 900 to 3,000 soldiers.[Al Jazeera]
  • Talks held in Rome in early August failed to produce an agreement to expand a pilot zone model for Israeli withdrawals and Lebanese army deployments.[Al Jazeera]

What remains uncertain

  • It remains uncertain whether European nations have the political appetite to deploy a mission that fully replaces UNIFIL.[Al Jazeera]
  • Analysts dispute whether any new European or UN arrangement can effectively operate without a broader political agreement between Israel and Lebanon.[Al Jazeera]

Sources