Business & Finance
Travel shoulder season savings shrink as demand shifts away from peak summer months
Price gaps between summer and fall travel are narrowing or reversing due to higher demand, climate trends, and elevated fuel costs.
The short version
- Traditional fall shoulder season discounts for airfare and hotels have decreased significantly, with domestic U.S. fall prices in some cases matching or exceeding summer rates.
- Travelers are increasingly shifting trips to the fall to avoid extreme summer temperatures, heavy crowds, and to take advantage of remote work flexibility.
- Overall travel costs have also risen, driven partly by higher jet fuel prices linked to disruptions from the Iran war.
- Travel experts advise that finding shoulder season savings now requires booking further in advance or shifting travel dates later into October and November.
Key facts
- Data from Hopper indicates that round-trip domestic fall flights in the U.S., which averaged 20% cheaper than summer flights in 2023, are priced slightly above summer rates in 2026.[CNBC]
- Expedia reported that lodging prices across the top 10 U.S. destinations are 20% higher in the fall compared to summer, while airfare is up 2%.[CNBC]
- International shoulder season savings have also diminished since 2023, with U.S.-to-Europe fall flight discounts dropping from 33% to 22%, according to Hopper.[CNBC]
- Kayak data shows average domestic airfare reached $366 for the week of Aug. 17, up 34% from the prior year, while international airfare rose 25% to $893.[CNBC]
- Industry analysts attribute the shrinking price gap to remote work flexibility, extreme summer heat, summer overcrowding, struggles among budget airlines, and higher jet fuel prices stemming from crude oil disruptions during the Iran war.[CNBC]
What remains uncertain
- It remains uncertain how long elevated travel prices will persist, as jet fuel costs remain tied to ongoing crude oil supply disruptions from the Iran war.[CNBC]