Business & Finance
US stock and bond metrics reach key thresholds heading into September
Major market indicators including the S&P 500, the VIX, and Treasury yields are testing critical levels as investors weigh Federal Reserve policy expectations.
The short version
- The S&P 500 held within 2% of its recent peak near 7800 through late August despite slim trading volumes.
- The 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 4.7% after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled short-term rates remain the primary tool to counter persistent inflation.
- Investors face uncertainty over monetary policy, with market-implied odds of a September rate hike standing slightly above 50%.
Key facts
- The S&P 500 remained within 2 percent of its peak above 7800 through the end of August.[CNBC]
- The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) fell below 15 during late August.[CNBC]
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.7 percent following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's remarks at Jackson Hole.[CNBC]
- Market pricing indicated odds slightly above 50 percent for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.[CNBC]
- According to Charles Schwab, Nvidia and Micron combined represent one-third of aggregate 2026 earnings growth, while the top ten corporate earners account for two-thirds.[CNBC]
What remains uncertain
- Whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its September policy meeting.[CNBC]