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India's GDP expands 7.8% in fiscal first quarter, surpassing analyst forecasts

Strong performance in services and manufacturing offset weak agricultural output, matching the growth rate of the prior quarter.

The short version

  • India's gross domestic product grew by 7.8% year-over-year in the quarter ending in June, outpacing expectations.
  • The expansion was driven by services and manufacturing, while growth in agriculture remained weak.
  • The Reserve Bank of India has warned that global economic turbulence, elevated energy prices, and weather risks could slow growth over the remainder of the fiscal year.

Key facts

  • India's economy expanded 7.8% in the quarter ending in June, matching the 7.8% growth recorded in the preceding quarter.[CNBC]
  • The 7.8% growth rate surpassed a Reuters poll projection of 7.1% and the Reserve Bank of India's estimate of 7.0%.[CNBC]
  • According to the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, expansion was mainly powered by real estate, financial, IT, and professional services, along with improved manufacturing performance.[CNBC]
  • India's consumer price inflation rose for nine consecutive months, reaching 4.45% in July, though the central bank kept interest rates unchanged in August.[CNBC]

What remains uncertain

  • The Reserve Bank of India expects full-year fiscal growth to slow to 6.7% due to global economic uncertainty, elevated energy costs, and potential weather risks from El Niño impacting agriculture.[CNBC]

Sources