Business & Finance
Six months into Iran war, energy disruptions and market shifts create uneven global economic impacts
Global stock markets have rebounded and energy prices remain elevated while Gulf oil infrastructure faces ongoing drone and missile strikes.
The short version
- Six months after the conflict began on Feb. 28, major stock indexes have rebounded from initial corrections while global oil prices remain roughly 20% to 22% higher than prewar levels.
- Iran and Iran-backed groups have launched at least 172 attacks on nonmilitary targets in Gulf Cooperation Council countries, with nearly half targeting energy infrastructure.
- High energy and fertilizer costs are raising transport fares and threatening global food security, while accelerating clean energy adoption in several regions.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to commercial shipping, though Iran and Oman agreed to a temporary maritime transit route.
Key facts
- Brent crude prices rose from $72 to $88 per barrel—peaking near $120—following the start of the conflict on Feb. 28.[Al Jazeera · Associated Press]
- According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, at least 172 attacks on nonmilitary infrastructure have been carried out in GCC countries, 48% of which targeted energy facilities.[Al Jazeera]
- U.S. stock markets recovered after a five-week decline in March, with the Dow up nearly 19%, the S&P 500 up almost 22%, and the Nasdaq gaining 27% from their lows.[Associated Press]
- Industry analysts estimate U.S. energy companies' share of gas supplies from the Gulf region will decrease by about 40% and oil supplies by 30% to 35% this year.[Al Jazeera]
- Fertilizer prices peaked in April at 44% above prewar levels, leading to reduced agricultural application and warnings from the UN World Food Programme regarding increased risk of hunger.[Associated Press]
- Defense contractors and firms connected to members of President Donald Trump's family, as well as the president's stock portfolio, saw revenue growth and contract awards during the war.[Associated Press]
What remains uncertain
- The long-term reopening and security framework for the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, as Iran conditions full reopening on U.S. compliance with a lapsed interim agreement.[Al Jazeera]
- The exact timeline for repairing damaged Qatari LNG trains and completing major Gulf energy expansion projects remains uncertain, with repair estimates ranging from three to five years.[Al Jazeera]