Environment & Climate
NOAA and major almanacs release conflicting fall weather forecasts
Predictions for September, October, and November vary widely, with NOAA leaning warm while the Farmers' Almanac forecasts a cold, wet season.
The short version
- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the Old Farmer's Almanac, and the Farmers' Almanac have released their respective predictions for the autumn months.
- While NOAA's forecast leans toward hotter-than-normal temperatures across most states, the Farmers' Almanac predicts widespread cold and stormy conditions.
- The developing El Niño is expected to reach maximum strength this year, influencing fall weather patterns by suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity and contributing to West Coast high-tide flooding.
Key facts
- NOAA's long-range forecast for September through November suggests above-average temperatures for most of the U.S., with the Pacific Northwest most likely to see warmer weather.[The Hill]
- The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a warmer-than-average fall overall, but forecasts cool and wet conditions in the Pacific Northwest and northern New England.[The Hill]
- The Farmers' Almanac forecasts a cold fall across the northern two-thirds of the country, with wet conditions in the central U.S. and New England, and a rainy Midwest.[The Hill]
- Both almanacs claim an 80% accuracy rate, though scientific research shows only about half of the Farmers' Almanac forecasts are correct.[The Hill]
- NOAA predicts the Southwest and Southeast are more likely to see above-average precipitation, whereas the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are more likely to be dry.[The Hill]
What remains uncertain
- Long-range forecasts are highly variable, and NOAA officials note that their outlooks are subject to change as the season approaches.[The Hill]