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Environment & Climate

Renewable energy capacity projected to surpass natural gas by summer 2027

Recent data from the US Energy Information Administration shows renewables accounted for more than 30% of total electrical generation in the first half of 2026.

The short version

  • Renewable energy's total installed capacity in the US is on track to exceed that of natural gas by summer 2027 or sooner, according to a review of federal data.
  • Electricity produced by renewables grew 10.9% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, reaching a 30.2% share of total domestic generation.
  • The growth is being led by utility-scale solar and battery storage systems, while coal-fired capacity and generation continue to decline.

Key facts

  • Renewable energy and battery storage are projected to add approximately 82.9 gigawatts of new generating capacity in the US by June 30, 2027.[Electrek]
  • Total US fossil fuel and nuclear power capacity are projected to drop by nearly 3.1 gigawatts by mid-2027.[Electrek]
  • In the first half of 2026, renewable sources accounted for 30.2% of total US electrical generation, up from 27.8% during the same period in 2025 and 16.9% a decade ago.[Electrek]
  • Electricity generated by US coal plants decreased by 11.3% during the first half of 2026, while nuclear and natural gas generation rose slightly by 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively.[Electrek]
  • Utility-scale battery energy storage capacity reached 51,665.7 megawatts by the end of June 2026, marking a nearly 20-fold increase over five years, with another 22,788.4 megawatts of expansion projected by July 2027.[Electrek]

What remains uncertain

  • Because the EIA does not forecast small-scale solar capacity, the exact timeline for renewables surpassing natural gas relies on the SUN DAY Campaign's assumption that small-scale solar will add at least 6,000 megawatts over the next year based on historic trends.[Electrek]

Sources