← Latest briefing

Business & Finance

Corn and wheat prices reach highest levels in over three years

Supply reductions, adverse weather, and escalating Black Sea conflict drive significant gains in grain futures.

The short version

  • Corn and wheat futures settled higher on Friday, hitting levels not seen in over three years due to distinct global supply and weather pressures.
  • Wheat gained 12.1% during the week amid heightened military tensions in the Black Sea that threatened export infrastructure.
  • Corn gained 5.5% for the week following reduced U.S. yield forecasts and hot, wet summer weather conditions across the U.S. and Europe.
  • Traders are watching whether continued Black Sea export disruptions and reduced U.S. harvest expectations will force global markets into a supply-rationing phase.

Key facts

  • Wheat futures settled 3.1% higher at 784 cents per bushel on Friday, after reaching a high of 790.25 cents—the highest since February 2023.[CNBC]
  • Corn futures settled 0.6% higher at 536.5 cents per bushel on Friday, peaking at 541.25 cents, its highest level since July 2023.[CNBC]
  • Wheat futures have risen more than 54.5% year-to-date, while corn futures are up 21.8% over the same period.[CNBC]
  • The USDA lowered its U.S. corn yield forecast by 2.3 bushels per acre to 180.7 in its August WASDE report.[CNBC]
  • Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of total global wheat exports.[CNBC]

What remains uncertain

  • The full extent to which Russian wheat export capacity will be reduced due to Black Sea infrastructure damage remains uncertain.[CNBC]
  • The ultimate impact of fungal diseases and late-season weather on the final U.S. corn harvest yield has not yet been determined.[CNBC]

Sources