Environment & Climate
Study indicates climate change is strengthening El Niño events, though outside experts remain divided
Researchers analyzing Galapagos coral fossils report El Niño intensity has increased by over 36% since the pre-industrial era, sparking debate among scientists.
The short version
- A study published in Science links human-caused global warming to an accelerating intensification of El Niño events.
- Researchers analyzed 29 coral fossils from the Galapagos Islands to reconstruct tropical Pacific sea temperatures dating back to around 1100.
- Outside climate experts are divided, with some praising the coral record and others noting discrepancies with recent water temperature measurements near the Galapagos.
- The findings arrive as Columbia University's tracker forecasts the current strong El Niño could continue intensifying over the coming months.
Key facts
- A study in the journal Science claims El Niño strength has risen by more than 36% compared to pre-industrial levels, with a 16% jump in the last 40 years.[Associated Press]
- Lead researcher Julia Cole and her team examined 29 coral fossils from the Galapagos Islands spanning over 900 years to reconstruct past ocean temperatures.[Associated Press]
- According to Columbia University's tracker, recent weekly Pacific sea surface temperatures reached 2.7 degrees Celsius above normal and are expected to keep rising for two to four months.[Associated Press]
What remains uncertain
- Outside scientists are divided over the findings; critics argue the coral proxy data conflicts with recent instrumental observations showing a decline in El Niño-related temperature variations near the Galapagos in recent decades.[Associated Press]