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Environment & Climate

Study finds global heating from fossil fuels intensifies El Niño events

Researchers analyzing 1,000 years of Galápagos coral fossils determined that El Niño variability has increased by 37% over preindustrial levels during the past 40 years.

The short version

  • A study published in Science indicates that fossil-fuel-driven global heating is making El Niño climate patterns significantly more intense.
  • Analysis of Galápagos coral fossils revealed that El Niño variability has risen approximately 37% above preindustrial levels since the late 20th century.
  • Researchers and experts warn that stronger El Niño events will exacerbate global extreme weather, including droughts, floods, and food insecurity.

Key facts

  • A new study led by researchers from the University of Michigan and the University of California, Santa Barbara, was published in the journal Science.[The Guardian]
  • Researchers analyzed the chemical composition of 1,000-year-old coral fossils from the Galápagos Islands to reconstruct past ocean temperatures.[The Guardian]
  • The study found that El Niño variability has increased by roughly 37% over preindustrial levels over the past 40 years.[The Guardian]
  • A recent forecast cited in the reporting indicates that an upcoming major El Niño event could push approximately 50 million people into acute hunger.[The Guardian]

What remains uncertain

  • While study authors state the findings strongly indicate global heating is amplifying El Niño, co-author Samantha Stevenson-Karl noted it remains an indication rather than a definitive certainty for all future events.[The Guardian]

Sources