Environment & Climate
Coral records show recent El Niño events are stronger due to climate change, study finds
Analysis of fossilized corals in the Galápagos Islands reveals El Niño intensity over recent decades is unprecedented across the past millennium.
The short version
- A study in Science analyzing Galápagos coral records shows El Niño events over the past 40 to 50 years are significantly stronger than pre-industrial occurrences.
- Researchers attribute the increased intensity to human-caused climate change, with ocean stratification identified as a potential driver.
- Scientists emphasize the need for vulnerable regions to prepare for intensified El Niño weather impacts, though future long-term trends remain uncertain.
Key facts
- A new study analyzed growth bands and chemical isotopes in fossilized Galápagos corals to measure historical El Niño intensity over the last millennium.[Scientific American]
- Researchers found that El Niño events in the past four to five decades were substantially stronger than those during the earlier 20th century or pre-industrial times.[Scientific American]
- Study co-author Julia Cole stated that the recent surge in El Niño strength lacks precedent in data spanning the last 1,000 years.[Scientific American]
What remains uncertain
- The exact physical mechanism by which global warming strengthens El Niño remains unconfirmed, though researchers suspect surface ocean warming and increased precipitation isolate deeper cool water.[Scientific American]
- It remains unknown whether El Niño will continue strengthening, as extreme surface warming could potentially reduce the temperature contrast that powers the cycle.[Scientific American]
Sources
- Climate change is supercharging El Niños, coral records showScientific American metered