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Economists seek clarity on Fed chairman's strategy ahead of Jackson Hole speech, CNBC survey shows

A survey of 31 economists shows a majority want Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh to share his view of the economy, while most doubt recent Treasury intervention will lower bond yields.

The short version

  • Eighty percent of 31 economists surveyed by CNBC want Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh to detail his economic outlook during his upcoming Jackson Hole speech.
  • Respondents are divided on monetary policy, with 53% expecting interest rate hikes over the next year while 30% expect rate cuts.
  • Seventy-seven percent of surveyed economists believe recent Treasury Department purchases of long-dated securities will fail to lower bond yields.

Key facts

  • Eighty percent of 31 respondents in a CNBC Fed Survey want Fed Chairman Warsh to share more insight into his economic views during his upcoming Jackson Hole keynote address.[CNBC]
  • Survey respondents are evenly split at 48% on whether Chairman Warsh should provide specific guidance regarding the interest rate outlook.[CNBC]
  • Seventy-seven percent of respondents expect Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to lower bond yields through increased off-the-run debt purchases will be unsuccessful.[CNBC]
  • Over the next year, 53% of surveyed economists forecast interest rate hikes, 30% anticipate rate cuts, and 16% project no change in rates.[CNBC]
  • Economists in the survey expect 10-year Treasury yields to stay between 4.60% and 4.70% through the end of next year.[CNBC]

What remains uncertain

  • It remains uncertain whether Chairman Warsh will alter his stance on avoiding forward rate guidance during his Friday speech.[CNBC]
  • Survey respondents are split 40% to 40% on whether Warsh has majority support within the FOMC to reform the Fed's inflation framework.[CNBC]

Sources