Technology
IDC forecasts 16.7% drop in 2026 global smartphone shipments amid rising memory costs
High component prices are driving up average selling costs and accelerating decline in entry-level Android devices.
The short version
- IDC revised its 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast downward to a 16.7% year-over-year decline, representing roughly 200 million fewer units.
- Increasing memory component costs are expected to persist through at least 2028, leading analysts to declare a permanent end to low-cost entry-level smartphones.
- Shipments of smartphones under $100 dropped nearly 60% in Q2 2026 as manufacturers shift focus to higher-margin premium devices.
Key facts
- IDC projects global smartphone shipments in 2026 will drop by 16.7% year-over-year, worsening from a previously anticipated 14% decline.[9to5Google]
- Memory prices are forecasted to rise through at least 2028, with average selling prices expected to drop by only 1% to 2% annually afterwards.[9to5Google]
- In Q2 2026, shipments of smartphones priced below $100 experienced a year-over-year drop of nearly 60%.[9to5Google]
- Smartphone shipments in emerging markets are projected to decline by over 20% in 2026.[9to5Google]
- Foldable smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 12.6% in 2026 to reach 22.9 million units, increasing to roughly 27 million units in 2027.[9to5Google]
What remains uncertain
- The extent to which smaller Android manufacturers can survive the high-cost market environment over the next 18 months remains unclear.[9to5Google]