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Winter energy prices in Great Britain expected to reach three-year high

Regulator Ofgem is anticipated to raise the price cap by 4% in October, driven by rising wholesale gas costs.

The short version

  • Energy industry regulator Ofgem is expected to announce a 4% increase to the domestic price cap, raising typical annual energy bills to £1,729 starting in October.
  • The price hike, driven by higher international wholesale gas costs, will affect roughly 33 million households on variable tariffs in England, Scotland, and Wales.
  • Around 40% of households on fixed energy tariffs will be shielded from the immediate price increase until their current terms expire.

Key facts

  • Consultancy Cornwall Insight forecasts that a household using a typical amount of energy paid via direct debit will see annual bills rise from £1,663 to £1,729 starting in October.[BBC News]
  • Average international wholesale gas prices over the past three months were 61% higher than in late 2025, according to trade body Energy UK.[BBC News]
  • Energy UK estimates cumulative household energy debt has reached £6 billion and could rise to approximately £7 billion by the end of the year.[BBC News]
  • A government reduction of VAT on electricity bills taking effect in October is expected to lower a typical annual bill by roughly £50.[BBC News]

What remains uncertain

  • The exact level of the upcoming price cap depends on Ofgem's formal announcement.[BBC News]

Sources