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Environment & Climate

UN projects global temperatures overwhelmingly likely to break records by 2030

New climate forecasts indicate a 75% chance that average temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold set by the Paris agreement.

Updated Aug 25, 2026 · 06:19 UTC1 reports

The short version

  • A new report by the World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Meteorological Office projects a 91% chance that at least one year through 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
  • Projections indicate an 86% chance that one of the next five years will break the global heat record established in 2024, driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and an anticipated El Nino.
  • Regional projections point to accelerated warming in the Arctic, unusually dry conditions and elevated wildfire risks in the Amazon, and potential flooding in Africa's Sahel region.
  • Scientists note that surpassing the 1.5-degree benchmark temporarily increases severe weather risks, though long-term warming limits are evaluated over 20-year averages.

Key facts

  • The World Meteorological Organization projects a 75% chance that the average global temperature from 2026 to 2030 will exceed pre-industrial levels by over 1.5 degrees Celsius.[Associated Press]
  • There is an 86% chance that global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will surpass the annual warmth record set in 2024.[Associated Press]
  • The projections are derived from approximately 200 runs of computer simulations across 13 climate models.[Associated Press]
  • Arctic winter temperatures over the next five years are projected to average 5.1 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1991–2020 normal.[Associated Press]
  • The report models forecast higher rainfall than normal for Africa's Sahel region, which may cause flooding.[Associated Press]

What remains uncertain

  • Climate scientists continue to debate whether the overall rate of global warming is accelerating.[Associated Press]
  • The exact duration of the projected strong El Nino event remains unverified, though models suggest it could extend through 2028.[Associated Press]

Sources