Business & Finance
Kalshi traders signal low odds for passage of federal crypto legislation this year
Prediction market odds lag despite White House pressure, a scheduled Senate procedural vote, and CFTC plans to act independently if the bill stalls.
The short version
- Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi estimate a less than 25% chance that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will become law by the end of the year.
- The bill passed the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support and faces a Senate procedural vote on Sept. 15, supported by President Donald Trump.
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicated it will use existing powers to establish a regulatory framework for crypto markets if the legislation fails to pass.
Key facts
- Kalshi traders assign a less than 25% probability that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becomes law by year-end, and less than 50% odds that it will be implemented by April 2027.[CNBC]
- The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the House of Representatives with bipartisan support in July 2025 and is scheduled for a Senate procedural vote on Sept. 15.[CNBC]
- President Donald Trump publicly advocated for Congress to pass the legislation.[CNBC]
- CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated the agency would use existing statutory authority to build a crypto regulatory framework if legislative efforts remain stalled.[CNBC]
What remains uncertain
- Whether the Senate will approve the procedural vote on Sept. 15 or pass the bill into law before the end of the year remains uncertain.[CNBC]