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Environment & Climate

Analysis estimates climate damage from proposed North Sea oil and gas fields outweighs economic gains

A study using corporate production data and peer-reviewed climate models projects global economic losses between £119bn and £336bn from developing the Rosebank and Jackdaw sites.

Updated Aug 25, 2026 · 05:18 UTC1 reports

The short version

  • A new analysis by an Imperial College London researcher estimates that carbon emissions from developing the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields will cause between £119bn and £336bn in global climate-related economic damage.
  • The projected climate damage significantly exceeds the £28.7bn economic value to the UK estimated by Adura, the corporate promoter jointly owned by Shell and Equinor.
  • The study was submitted to an academic journal and to a government consultation while the UK considers whether to grant approval for the North Sea developments.
  • The UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero defended the North Sea as a vital national asset for energy security and jobs, while Adura did not respond to requests for comment.

Key facts

  • An analysis conducted by Luke Hatton of Imperial College London estimates global climate damages from the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields at £119bn to £336bn up to the year 2100.[The Guardian]
  • Adura, a venture jointly owned by Shell and Equinor promoting the fields, estimated the projects' value to the UK at £28.7bn.[The Guardian]
  • Anticipated oil and gas production from the Rosebank site accounts for approximately 88% of the study's calculated climate damages.[The Guardian]
  • If project output exceeds central estimates, the study projects the range of global climate damages could rise to £170bn to £482bn.[The Guardian]
  • The research has been submitted to a government consultation on Rosebank and to an academic journal for peer review.[The Guardian]

What remains uncertain

  • The precise financial impact contains uncertainty due to reliance on modeling assumptions regarding future temperature trends and economic valuations, according to Dr. Rick Lupton of the University of Bath.[The Guardian]
  • The UK government has not yet issued a final decision on whether it will approve both the Rosebank and Jackdaw developments or approve one while blocking the other.[The Guardian]

Sources